Transportation and Mobility
Much research is on-going on adressing future soilutions for transportation, especially for large cities. As summarized by McKinsey in this document, the emerging solutions point at electric motorisation, the share economy, and automatic-guiding cars.
And the cost of travelling by electric, automated cars is expected to dramatically drop, as car sharing, cost of batteries, and bette utilisation of cars will become reality.
The Auto-industry is expected to experience disruptive changes, such as more shared mobility, more of (semi-) autonomous cars, new business models for transportation and more efficient/electric cars. No standard or universal model will be applicable everywhere, because the optimal mobility solutions will have to adapt to local specificities and reflect local paradigms. The future of transportation will therefore result from experiments and learnings. More on this in this paper from J.SAchs.
Mobility in Cities
By 2050, about 70% of the world population will be living in cities, and this will mean 3 billion more persons. Therefore city mobility is a major topic.
And solutions for a sustainable mobility in cities must be chosen across the whole spectrum of mobility options. Multimodal mobility, supported by a data driven holistic approach that meets personal needs by considering transportation efficiency and freedom will define the framework for solutions.
More details on this in the report Integrated Sustainable Mobility in Cities of the WBCSD (World Business Council for Sustainable Development)....
The Deloitte page (see picture left)Digital Age Transportation makes also a relevant contribution on The future of Mobility, and is proposing several directions for solving the urban transportation, such as:
- connectivity, to provide necessary data for an optimal commuting planning
- Dynamic Mobility Pricing, enabling to discourage planning mobility when the network is highly congested,
- Digital Support Apps to facilitate a multi-modal, integrated mobility, with a proposal for a Digital Commute-Planner, that can propose options quantified on cost, time, CO2-load, health impact, etc...
- Developing new models of Private-Public partnership in mobility, with a focus on Car-Sharing,
Externalities for Car Transportation
Transportation by car is expensive, every user knows this. But what every user does not realize, is that the costs not covered by the user, the so called externalities, also make a substantial additional cost. And this is another reason to look for alternatives.
In a strudy of the Technical University of Dresden, in Germay, available at this link, these externalities, not directly covered by the user, make up to 2000 Euros in Germany per year and per car. Such costs are related to accident, air pollution, noise, climate change, managing the life-cycle, etc...
Disruptive trends, as reported in a McKinsey Report, will affect the individual mobility as well. Hybrid cars, and in some areas such as large cities, electric cars, can be expected to become the norm. But also smart infrastructure, usint IoT and other tools of digitalisation, should have a tangible impact on capacity utilisation and reduction of queing. Disruption can also take place in the design and assembly of cars, becoming more inclusive and assiciative, such as the Renault-Twizzy open source concept. The rate of transformation will be quite dependent of the necessary changes of regulation in cities, having to cope with congestions and pollution. Awareness of the impacts of the Air Pollution, especially in large cities, becoming more and acute, the rate of adoption of such vehicles can only accelerate.
Many transportation infratructures are becoming congested during peak-hours and often cannot be expanded. The tempting solution, if not always easy to defend politically, is the Mobility Pricing, that may, if properly done, and combined with complementary measures to compensate potential issues, contribute to alleviating transportation issues.